Pokémon TCG: Chaos Rising Pull Rates
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If you are opening Pokémon TCG: Chaos Rising, the first thing most collectors want to know is simple: how hard are the big cards to pull? Mega Greninja ex is the obvious headline chase, but the set has a few different rarity tiers worth understanding before you start opening packs.
The figures below come from more than 8,500 Chaos Rising booster packs opened by the TCGplayer Authentication Center. That gives us a useful look at the average odds, but it still does not guarantee what will happen in one booster box, one Elite Trainer Box, or one sealed case.
In plain terms, Chaos Rising looks fairly similar to other recent Mega Evolution era sets such as Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order. You should see regular hits often enough to keep openings interesting, but the top-end chase cards are still very hard pulls.
Chaos Rising pull rates by rarity
Here are the main Chaos Rising pull rates by rarity. The percentage column gives the pull rate with a 95% confidence interval, while the rounded odds are there to make the numbers easier to understand.
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Rounded Pull Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.30% ± 0.85% | 1 in 5 packs |
| Ultra Rare | 8.29% ± 0.58% | 1 in 12 packs |
| Illustration Rare | 10.66% ± 0.65% | 1 in 9 packs |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.21% ± 0.23% | 1 in 83 packs |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.10% ± 0.07% | 1 in 956 packs |
A rounded pull rate is a guide, not a promise. A card being “1 in 83 packs” does not mean every 83 packs will contain one.
Double Rare odds: roughly 1 in 5 packs
Double Rare
Double Rare
Double Rares are the easiest major hit tier to find in Chaos Rising. There are 10 Double Rare cards in the set, made up of regular Pokémon ex and Mega Evolution Pokémon ex cards.
The overall Double Rare pull rate is 20.30%, which works out at roughly 1 in 5 packs. That means you should see this rarity fairly often in normal openings. Pulling one specific Double Rare is a different story, with estimated odds of around 1 in 49 packs.
| Double Rare | Pull Rate | Rounded Pull Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Any Double Rare card | 20.30% ± 0.85% | 1 in 5 packs |
| Specific Double Rare card | 2.03% ± 0.30% | 1 in 49 packs |
Ultra Rare odds: roughly 1 in 12 packs
Ultra Rare
Ultra Rare
Ultra Rares are where the set starts to feel more premium. Chaos Rising has 18 Ultra Rare cards, including Full Art Pokémon ex, Mega Evolution Pokémon ex, Full Art Items, Stadiums, and Supporters.
The overall Ultra Rare pull rate is 8.29%, or roughly 1 in 12 packs. For one exact Ultra Rare, the odds fall to around 1 in 217 packs. That is why Full Arts can still feel surprisingly tough when you are chasing a specific card.
| Ultra Rare | Pull Rate | Rounded Pull Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Any Ultra Rare card | 8.29% ± 0.58% | 1 in 12 packs |
| Specific Ultra Rare card | 0.46% ± 0.14% | 1 in 217 packs |
Illustration Rare odds: roughly 1 in 9 packs
Illustration Rare
Illustration Rare
Illustration Rares are often the cards people enjoy most once they start seeing the artwork in person. Chaos Rising has 11 Illustration Rare cards, all focused on non-ex Pokémon with full-card artwork.
This rarity appears in the second Reverse Holo slot. The overall pull rate is 10.66%, or roughly 1 in 9 packs. If you are chasing one exact Illustration Rare, the estimate drops to around 1 in 103 packs.
| Illustration Rare | Pull Rate | Rounded Pull Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Any Illustration Rare card | 10.66% ± 0.65% | 1 in 9 packs |
| Specific Illustration Rare card | 0.97% ± 0.21% | 1 in 103 packs |
Special Illustration Rare odds: roughly 1 in 83 packs
Special Illustration Rare
Special Illustration Rare
Special Illustration Rares are the point where Chaos Rising becomes much tougher. There are six SIR cards in the set: four alternate-art Pokémon ex or Mega Evolution Pokémon ex, plus two alternate-art Supporters.
The overall SIR pull rate is 1.21%, or roughly 1 in 83 packs. If your target is one exact SIR, such as Mega Greninja ex, the estimate is around 1 in 496 packs.
| Special Illustration Rare | Pull Rate | Rounded Pull Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare card | 1.21% ± 0.23% | 1 in 83 packs |
| Specific Special Illustration Rare card | 0.20% ± 0.09% | 1 in 496 packs |
Mega Hyper Rare odds: Mega Greninja ex at roughly 1 in 956 packs
Mega Hyper Rare
Chaos Rising has one Mega Hyper Rare, and it is Mega Greninja ex. That makes the card easy to identify, but not easy to pull.
The estimated pull rate is 0.10%, or around 1 in 956 packs. This is the long-shot chase of Chaos Rising, so it is not something to expect from an average sealed opening.
| Mega Hyper Rare | Pull Rate | Rounded Pull Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Any Mega Hyper Rare card | 0.10% ± 0.07% | 1 in 956 packs |
| Specific Mega Hyper Rare card | 0.10% ± 0.07% | 1 in 956 packs |
What these Chaos Rising pull rates mean for collectors
Chaos Rising should still feel fun to open because the lower and mid rarity tiers appear often enough to keep packs moving. Double Rares, Ultra Rares, and Illustration Rares are the hits you are most likely to see across normal openings.
The top end is where expectations need to be realistic. Special Illustration Rares are already difficult at around 1 in 83 packs, and Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex is much harder at roughly 1 in 956 packs. If you only want one specific card, singles are usually the more predictable route.
Where to buy Chaos Rising in the UK
You can browse sealed Chaos Rising products at OBSIDIA here: Pokémon TCG: Chaos Rising.
Chaos Rising pull rates FAQs
What are the Chaos Rising pull rates?
Estimated rounded pull rates are: Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 12 packs, Illustration Rare 1 in 9 packs, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 83 packs, and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 956 packs.
What is the Mega Greninja ex SIR pull rate?
A specific Special Illustration Rare, including Mega Greninja ex SIR, is estimated at around 1 in 496 packs.
What is the Mega Greninja ex Mega Hyper Rare pull rate?
Mega Greninja ex Mega Hyper Rare is estimated at around 1 in 956 packs.
Are pull rates guaranteed per booster box?
No. Pull rates are averages from a large sample of booster packs. Individual booster boxes, ETBs, and cases can still vary.
Where can I buy Chaos Rising in the UK?
You can shop Chaos Rising products here: Chaos Rising at OBSIDIA.
